California Secession? 27 Potential Scenarios
The California Independence movement - breaking away from the USA to exists as a separate nation - is motivated by Brexit and Scottish & Catalonian separatist attempts, dislike of Republican policies, Senate under-representation, and increasing wealth (California is the world's 4th biggest economy).
Will this ambitious plan succeed? Below are 27 future scenarios, ranging from possible to ludicrous, utopian to apocalyptic.
1. Senate Reform takes place, giving California 12 Senators and many states just one (Texas gets 9, Florida and New York 6 each, etc.) This satisfies CA residents; the state stays in the union.
2. Poor leadership repeatedly derails the California Independence movement - accusations of it being a Russian, Chinese, or Iranian strategy ruin its progress.
3. California voters repeatedly reject California Independence attempts; secessionism is eventually dropped.
4. Natural catastrophes weaken California - earthquakes, fires, floods, tsunamis, tornados, rising sea level - California needs emergency federal funds, the California Exit movement is shelved.
5. TEXIT happens; Texas leaves USA and California stays in, as the guiding force of remaining 49.
6. Nuclear war breaks out between USA and an enemy. California departure is forgotten.
7. A controversial war erupts between USA and a so-called enemy. Peace movement in California leads to secession. USA can’t resist because it is distracted by war.
8. USA slips out of democracy into authoritarianism; California resists but is militarily defeated.
9. USA slips out of democracy into authoritarianism; California resists - aided by international allies it separates, after a bloody struggle.
10. California elects a charismatic governor on a California Independence platform; a peaceable exit is achieved.
11. “Bible Belt” states break away to create a UCSA “United Christian States of America” with prayers in every school and no abortion. The remaining USSA “United Secular States of America” design a new Constitution and enjoy their irreligious culture.
12. A violently contested Presidential election splits the USA into red and blue regions; California happily joins 22-25 other blue states.
13. Technological breakthroughs on the West Coast triple the region’s wealth; California-Oregon-Washington form the nation of Pacifica and ‘buy their way out’ of the USA.
14. California Independence is on the ballot every year for 20 years, slowly gaining support. Referendums demand an exit, negotiations begin, progress is slow.
15. Pandemic ravages the USA, killing 50% of the population. National, state & county authority disintegrates, “town halls” emerge as only government, centered around hospital management.
16. California is divided into 6 states, Texas into 4, New York and Florida into 3, every new state gets two senators, everyone is happy, California Independence retires.
17. Rapid Global Warming depopulates the Southeast and Southwest due to unlivable temperatures; mass migration chaos leads to emergency governments.
18. Virtual reality advances create exciting parallel worlds where everyone chooses to exist enjoying epic adventures. California Independence is forgotten.
19. USA goes bankrupt; China buys all property and America is a vassal state. Californians are happy because they finally have Medicare for All.
20. ETs from faraway planet land in Santa Barbara, establish capital there, world capitulates.
21. Rapid acceleration in global warming results in drought, dry riverbeds, ruined crops. USA is vacated in mass migration to temperate, water-rich Canada.
22. A coalition of Democrat, Green, and Republican California Independence politicians negotiate a peaceful separation from the USA, splitting produce from the Central Valley.
23. By 2040, 65% of the USA population under 40 is atheistic. Christian leadership abandons America for more amenable souls in less developed, less educated nations. Secularism wins: Constitution revised; California remains.
24. California Independence snipers assassinate both USA Presidential candidates in 2036, and hackers dismantle the nuclear arsenal. The Golden States slips safely away.
25. In 2044, the CA state government is 50% Hispanic and 25% Asian. Alliances with Latin America and Asia enable safe passage to independence.
26. USA divides into Red Rural and Blue Urban, with freeway tubes (without off-ramps) connecting the cities. Two totally different cultures co-exist side-by-side but isolated from each other. The estrangement is peaceful, due to necessity of trade.
27. The Singularity Arrives. Entire planet is governed by Artificial Intelligence. Everyone willingly accepts its decrees because they enjoy its inventions.